Our quick shot of snow today will give way to warmer temperatures Tuesday. By the middle of the week we will be back near 60 degrees, with mild temperatures sticking with us through Thursday. Everything starts to change as a large trough approaches us from the west Friday, with a slight chance of showers and cooler temperatures to end the week. By this weekend, snow is looking more and more probable, but. . .

Moisture. Models are in good agreement that we are going to have plenty of moisture to work with, the only question is exactly how much. This system will be pulling in moisture from just about every major water source you can think of, and with that, whoever gets it will do very well.

Slow moving. A little juggle going on between good slow and too slow, but generally slow is good. If you believe some of the slowest solutions, this system could crank for days east of Denver, pumping beneficial moisture to the Front Range.

Storm track. It is fair to say we still do not have consensus on the eventual track of this system. In general all models have a favorable storm track for snow in Denver, but there are great differences between the GFS and EURO models that need addressing. With any luck at all, we will start to see some convergence on one solution or another today.

Timing. Models differ dramatically on this front, and will likely be one of the key features in determining how much snow we will receive. Some of the quicker models bring in our chance for snow Saturday and have us clearing out Sunday evening, while some of the slower models continue to bring snow to the region into early next week.

Temperatures. The concern here will mainly be on the front end of the storm, and how fast we can change over from rain to snow. I still think we would see mostly snow, but some models last night suggested several hours at the onset of rain. Also, depending on timing and intensity, higher sun angles will mean a tougher task for snow to accumulate during the daytime hours on the warmer surfaces.

Snowfall Totals
Number one question is how much snow will we see. Far too early to get wrapped up in totals, especially given the uncertainties outlined above. I will say this, the more bullish scenarios have me thinking of all of our classic March storms, while the less bullish have me far less excited, but appreciative of the moisture nonetheless.

We will be tracking all the latest with this developing storm throughout the week. Be sure to follow along by either subscribing to our email updates when new posts are published, or joining us on social media - @brendansweather.

To begin February 2013 things were looking quite grim. Denver's seasonal snowfall was just 41% of normal, and statewide snowpack was just 72% of normal. To begin March, Denver is now 91% of normal, thanks to 14.1" of snow recorded at DIA during the month of February, and statewide snowpack made modest gains and is now 78% of normal.

Despite this promising news, the U.S. Drought Monitor continues to classify over 90% of Colorado as in severe drought. This number is down just slightly (from 95% to 91%) from January 1st 2013. Also, according to the U.S. Snotel report, Colorado would need to see 165% of normal snowfall this March to reach our average peak snowpack by mid April.


March Denver's snowiest month on average
Denver receives about 11" of snow during the month of March, which is about 20% of our seasonal snowfall. The last two years, however, this has not been the case. Denver received just a trace of snow in March of 2012, and 2.5" the year prior. Last year you will remember, Colorado and the nation saw record-breaking (June-like) temperatures during the month of March which kicked off 10 months of above average temperatures and below normal precipitation for the state.

The outlook for this March is not so clear. Overall, the U.S. is forecast to have a cooler than average month, but a majority of that colder air could get locked up in the eastern half of the country. In fact, the east coast is bracing for what could be another big winter storm already next week.

Long range models have been flip-flopping for Denver. The GFS extended outlook has jumped between an almost completely dry next 15 days to a rather stormy forecast in the 10 - 16 day outlook. With that, too soon to call it either way. The potential certainly exists for us to see active weather return by mid month, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

For the short term. . . Temperatures will be well above average this weekend, with highs in the mid 60s possible on Sunday. Monday will be cooler with a slight chance of snow across northeast Colorado Monday afternoon. By midweek, however, we are back in the 60s, before yet another quick hitting system could cool us down Friday. Neither of these systems looks particularly interesting at this time, but stay tuned!

Action needed by current subscribers
I have to take a break from the weather today and write to you all about some changes coming to the subscription service for Brendan's Weather. Google's FeedBurner appears as though it is on the way out the door, and with zero notice, they have removed the Brendan's Weather email subscriptions from my account. It seems as though emails are still being sent at this point, but rather than wait any longer, today I am announcing a change of service.

The real drag of it all is that with no list on FeedBurner I am unable to transfer all of the existing subscribers, and will be forced to ask you all to resubscribe. Fortunately, doing so is easy, just enter your email below, then click subscribe!

If you are not an active subscriber, please join today
With all the changes taking place, it is a great opportunity for those who have not yet subscribed to do so now. By subscribing to the email updates, you will receive notice of each new post delivered directly to your email. You can be sure that the email you provide will not be sold, spammed, or otherwise abused, and that canceling your subscription can be done in one click.

Please share!
Readership on the blog has been at an all time high to start 2013. I am grateful for all the support and feedback I have received over the years, and truly enjoy the evolution this blog has seen in that time. If you appreciate the content on this site, please share this post with others who you think may as well. This will not become a weekly campaign, and with that, I will thank you now for your support in doing so.

May it snow early and often this March!

Yours truly,
Brendan

The winter storm that brought anywhere from 6 - 24" to the urban corridor and Front Range foothills has now moved into Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas where it is expected to bring heavy snow, rain and severe weather.

If you missed it, here is a map of some of the snow totals from the region, all storm reports by NWS employees and trained spotters. Officially, Denver received 9.1" of snow, by far our biggest storm of the season, and the most snow we have received from a single storm since February 2012. This storm, combined with the one late last week, managed to jump Denver from just 50% of normal to 88% of normal snowfall in a matter of days. Be sure to check out some of the video and images from yesterday's storm.

Looking ahead. . . The first part of the week will remain chilly with the fresh snow cover. There will be a chance for some light snow and snow showers after about noon on Tuesday, and continuing through Tuesday night, though only a dusting to an inch is expected at this time.

After Wednesday, temperatures will slowly start to moderate. Highs by Saturday will be back near 50°, with the mid 50s possible Sunday.